NOBL BLOG

What I've Been Doing

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Fri, 30 Nov 2007 03:57:00 +0000

(This guy is not me)

Not the most exciting 10 minute video you will see on your computer. I am part of a statewide commission that is looking at redrawing school district maps in our state. We have to file our report by December 31, and things have heated up quite a bit lately. It's kept me from participating in the finer things, like OOTP baseball.

Honestly, I'd rather be facing Ki-son fastballs.

Bonds: Hero or Villian?

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sat, 17 Nov 2007 00:46:00 +0000

What happened
A federal grand jury indicted baseball slugger Barry Bonds on Thursday on charges that he lied to a grand jury when he said he never knowingly used drugs to boost his performance. Bonds has said the record he set in August "is not tainted," but the indictment sparked fresh criticism from fans and sportswriters who say Bonds doesn’t deserve to be recognized as professional baseball’s career home-run king. (The Columbus Dispatch)

What the commentators said
The indictment was “hardly surprising,” said Dave Sheinin in The Washington Post (free registration). He is the “most polarizing figure” in baseball, and “his transformation from lithe leadoff hitter in the 1990s to hulking slugger” has drawn suspicious sneers for years.

So go ahead and slap an asterisk next to No. 762, said Tom Verducci in SI.com.

[more from The Week Daily]

Bonds To Boycott Hall

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sun, 04 Nov 2007 01:08:00 +0000

Barry Bonds says he will boycott the baseball Hall of Fame if the museum displays his record-breaking home run ball, which has been branded with an asterisk.

Bonds told MSNBC in an interview that aired Thursday that he is prepared to be a no-show if inducted into the Hall; players are not eligible for election until five years after their retirement.

"I won't be part of it," he said. "I won't be there. You can call me but I won't be there."

Slayton Honored by League, Team

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 00:36:00 +0000

Veteran Indians slugger James Slayton was named the American League Player of the Week for his performance at the plate. Slayton went 12 for 25 in 6 games last week against Texas, Pittsburgh and New York. Six of Slayton's hits were for extra bases, including 2 homers and 3 triples. He scored 9 and knocked in 9 while the Indians went 4-2 over that stretch.

James was accepting his award during a live pre-game telecast before the Indians-Yankees game on April 23 when teammates presented him with an award of their own. Slayton is currently leading Indians hitters with a .441 average and 5 homers through 17 games this season. The Indians are currently second in their division and fifth overall in the American League.

A Kinder, Gentler.... Billy?

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 03:00:00 +0000

Boshears: Have Bat Will Travel

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Mon, 29 Oct 2007 00:29:00 +0000

Michael Boshears has hit 399 home runs. One more dinger would put him with Ross Augustus (451) and Richard Boos (410) as the only players in NOBL history to surpass the 400 mark. Both Augustus and Boos retired at the end of last season.

Boshears's home run woes were highlighted near the end of last season. He finished 2017 with 9 homers for the New York Mets, well below his career average of 30. The Mets did not re-sign Boshears and he is currently a free agent.

Boshears's agent Greg Genske says the "future Hall of Fame candidate" is looking to play at least another season. "He went to nine straight All-Star Games. He's won Gold Gloves at two positions. He's about to hit his 400th home run. Michael can still play. Why someone has not jumped on him is beyond me."

Boshears was drafted back in 2002 by the Colorado Rockies before being traded to Philadelphia where he played for nine seasons. He played two years with Houston, including 2014 when he helped the .45's win the World Series. His two previous years, both disappointing, were with the Mets.

3 - 0

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 05:51:00 +0000

Harry Nash

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 01:21:00 +0000

Harry Nash has been a very good player in the NOBL for a very long time.

How good?

This year, his fifteenth, he will surpass 2500 hits, 400 home runs, 1500 runs, 1500 rbis... and is quickly approaching 450 stolen bases. How will he rank against the all-time greats in NOBL lore?

Arguably 1-2 or 2-1 with Ross Augustus. There are seven MVPs and four World Series championships between them. While Nash played in more postseason games than Augustus, their numbers match up quite well:

Augustus: .336 AVG, 22HR, 79 RBI, 98 games
Nash: .339 AVG, 21 HR, 99 RBI, 130 games

Their career numbers are also somewhat similar, albeit Augustus was more power, Nash more speed. Augustus had career percentages of .319 AVG, .380 OBP, .538 SLG, .917 OPS. Currently, Nash has .323 AVG, .383 OBP, .534 SLG, .918 OPS.

If we could do it all over again, which would you take in the draft, Ross Augustus or Harry Nash? Check the poll on the right.

Cleveland Welcomes Kemmerer to the Reservation

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sun, 28 Oct 2007 00:18:00 +0000

While his first start in an Indians uniform didn't end the way he would have liked, Michael Kemmerer still seems excited about his new home in Cleveland.

"This team is going to surprise a lot of people," he said at his official signing announcement during the offseason. "The new direction ownership is moving is a positive one. They brought in the talent. Now it's our turn to deliver."

The "talent" Kemmerer is referring to includes himself, outfielder Kevin Vandeberg and Cuban defector Ray Beltran. The Indians invested over $50 million of their payroll in those three and are hoping it pays off with a World Series ring.

Kemmerer will be out early before Monday's start against the Royals meeting fans and signing autographs. Cleveland will open the stadium up an hour earlier than normal to allow fans access to their new ace.

An opening day match-up saw Kemmerer face the Keith Brown and the visiting Cincinnati Reds. Both pitched well (Kennemer: 9IP, 2ER, 11K; Brown: 8IP, 1ER, 4K), but neither figured in the decision. Both aces were highly sought-after free agents this past year, and both will surely compete for the AL Cy Young Award this season.

Hope Springs Eternal

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sat, 27 Oct 2007 19:18:00 +0000

I miss Shoe. Is it still carried in any newspapers?

Weil Impresses in Debut

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 03:23:00 +0000

Indians rookie hurler Anthony Weil took the mound for his major league debut on Friday against the Cincinnati Reds and wasted no time in notching his first major league complete game victory. He scattered four hits and two walks over nine innings, striking out six en route to a 5-1 win in front of the Cleveland faithful.

Cleveland jumped out to a quick 4-0 league in the second when Reds pitcher Harold Argueta started the inning by walking Flori Figuera and Al Quinto. First baseman Greg Desjardins scored both with a double and later scored when Elmer Sweet doubled him in with two out.

With the signing of three high profile free agents in the off-season, the Indians have the league's third largest payroll at nearly $82 million. Cleveland's front office is counting on revenue from increased ticket sales to offset their bull market trading. At 1-3, things could have started out better.

Weil's solid performance came before a crowd of nearly 30,000 who had come out to Jacob's Field for Bat Day. But at 1-3 the Tribe is going to need to notch a lot more wins to bring out the fans with any consistency.

OPENING DAY!

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Fri, 26 Oct 2007 00:58:00 +0000

Here's hoping your team starts out hotter than the Indians did in '07.

Three Men and a Little Gravy

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 01:16:00 +0000

Cleveland Indians 2018 FA signings

Michael Kemmerer
$23,650,000

Ray Beltran
$17,800,000

Kevin Vandenberg
$11,800,000

Total payroll $53,250,000

Player Privacy?

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 00:49:00 +0000

This is an old report (1989) considering the age old question: information or invasion of privacy. Many of those involved have since then been in the spotlight for off the field antics... including the reporter, Marv Albert.

The $300 million bargain?

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sat, 20 Oct 2007 01:27:00 +0000

You have to read this.

The New York Yankees' star third baseman, already the highest paid U.S. athlete in professional team sports, is likely to sign a new multi-year contract soon that could be between $300 million and $400 million.

Pre-Sweep

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Mon, 15 Oct 2007 04:01:00 +0000

Colorado took a commanding 3-0 lead for the National League pennant tonight, winning 4 to 1 over the Diamondbacks.

I wonder if anyone here in Arizona noticed.

"Looked like a strike anyway"

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sun, 14 Oct 2007 05:08:00 +0000

Scene from Major League

Murderer's Row

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sat, 13 Oct 2007 18:38:00 +0000

From the Ken Burns documentary, Baseball.

Indians Sign Kemmerer, Vandenberg -- Double Their Payroll

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sat, 13 Oct 2007 03:11:00 +0000

Before the ink was dry on the deals the Cleveland Indians had gone from a payroll of $29,000,000 to $64,500,000. And they claim they are not done yet.

The Indians won the Michael Kemmerer sweepstakes by signing the former Cy Young Award winner to a $23,650,000 contract for five years. In all, Cleveland has invested nearly $120,000,000 in the hurler. Other clubs interested in Kemmerer included the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, Cubs, Yankees, Twins, and Mariners.

"Obviously, we are very excited to have Michael join with us," beamed Indians owner Joe Thomas. "There were three good starters in free agency this year, but Michael was our choice from the start. He is a dominating pitcher, and he will lead our team to a series of championships."

Michael Kemmerer was originally a first round draft pick of Cleveland's back in 2010 before being traded to Seattle in 2011. In seven years with the Mariners Kemmerer won both a World Series and a Cy Young Award and compiled a 120-62 record with a 3.08 ERA.

Cleveland also managed to reach agreement with 2009 Rookie of Year Kevin Vandenberg. Terms of the deal are reportedly $11.8 million for 3 years. Vandenberg will join 2017 Rookie of the Year Elmer Sweet in the Indians outfield. The Aussie has hit .293 and stolen 434 bases for the Twins and Yankees over his nine year career.

The value of not being broke

noreply@blogger.com (ddold) — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 22:01:00 +0000

The minor hubbub yesterday during the draft when Atlanta was forced to make a worse selection than they otherwise would have because of a lack of funds to pay a signing bonus put me to thinking. What is the overall difference in potential value between the pitcher that they did draft, Orlando Andrade, versus the pitcher they could have drafted who was subsequently selected by St Louis, James Mitchell? It also gave me a 15 minute break from end of quarter spreadsheets, while allowing me to screw around in a spreadsheet so it didn't look like I was screwing around.

A couple of big caveats ... I was bored enough to not bother looking at standard evaluations and instead wandered along my own random thought process. I ended up deciding to look at how effective a starting pitcher was at suppressing runs scored based on the number of baserunners allowed, i.e. how good they are at assisting their defense in preventing runs from scoring once they reach base? Second, I was too lazy to dig up very detailed stats, so I used just a basic set; IP, hits, runs (not earned just total runs), homeruns allowed, walks, and strikeouts. Third, I do believe that pitchers can influence the outcome of balls put in play. See this article from Diamond Mind Baseball for a detailed analysis on why this is true, even if it is usually a very minor difference between one average pitcher and the next. Without going into too much detail on the contents of the article, I will point out that the difference between a good pitcher and an average pitcher may be small, but an average pitcher is actually going to be a pretty good pitcher. Average pitchers stick around, have prosperous careers, and are valuable. What we really want to look at is how much of a difference can a pitcher provide over a replacement level player, or that VORP stat that v6.5 doesn't calculate. This was slightly difficult as most NOBL teams didn't really have any replacement level starting pitchers on their 2017 staffs that saw significant playing time in 2016 from which I could calculate the baseline stats, but luckily for you I persevered and just aggregated up a couple of duds who shall remain nameless to save their GMs the embarrassment.

On to the analysis, after which you can all feel free to point out the severe flaws in my logic. Before I could look at the actual value for two pitchers who probably won't even make a major league appearance for another 3 or 4 seasons, I had to find similar contemporaries with enough data to crank through. Enter Alvin Aybar and Dustin Harrison. Neither will be an exact match to Andrade and Mitchell, respectively, but they are pretty damn close; Andrade will probably be not quite as good as Aybar, and Mitchell will potentially have much more movement on his pitches than Harrison which could have a large impact on improving his chances. As an after thought, I added World Series MVP Michael Drexler to the calculations as another potential match for Mitchell. Their stuff and movement are close, but Drexler does have control issues which hurt his overall stats. Mitchell is probably going to be a mix of Drexler and Harrison; Drexler's nastyness with stuff that offers plenty of movement, but the slightly better control of Harrison. Of course, this entire premise is based on Andrade and Mitchell both actually developing to their talents, but why not ... it could happen. To round out the eval, I then aggregated a couple of our duds, and added in Yoo Ki Son as well just to see what an extremely dominant pitcher's stats would look like.

To start with, I did a quick and dirty pro-rating of every one's stats to equalize all innings pitched while maintaining the respective starters personal ratios for the remainder of the data. I used Aybar's 1622 innings pitched as the baseline, largely because until I added Drexler at the last minute, he had the most innings pitched. This extrapolation does potentially negatively effect Harrison, who as a younger pitcher will be more adversely effected by his youthful wildness whereas his total walks when he does reach 8 seasons of his own work may be lower than the projection, but probably not by much. Aybar is also a safe bet as the baseline as he has not seen a significant drop off in performance in his later years, so he has a good solid 8 seasons of reliably consistent ball when it averages out.

Equalized on innings pitched, the stats look pretty much as would be expected. Aybar surrenders fewer runs and homeruns than the Replacement Pitchers (RPs) but more than Harrison. He did actually give up more hits than anyone else, more than one per inning, but made up for that with a very good walk/inning ratio that was better than Harrison by a long ways. The RP pitchers are appreciably worse in every category, although they did strike out more hitters than Aybar by a negligible amount, and Ki Son was significant better in every area than the others.

OK, diving in ... what I really wanted to look at was on average, how many outs does their defense record compared to the number of runners that are actually scoring. I removed homeruns and strikeouts from the calculations because they don't impact what I'm looking for; the pitchers interaction with their defense. A run is guaranteed to score on a homerun, and other than the extremely rare circumstances of an outfielder turning a homerun into an out or the inside the park homerun, there is no opportunity for defensive interaction on the longball. I am looking primarily at hits plus walks minus homeruns, and how that compares to runs allowed minus homeruns over the 4866 total outs minus the strikeouts presented in our rationalized 1622 innings. It would seem that these calculations would give a reasonable representation of 1) how good the pitcher is at avoiding successive baserunners (which WHIP also covers), 2) how good the pitcher is at avoiding extra base hits (other than HR) which are proportionally more likely to lead to runs, and 3) how good they are at putting balls in play within range of their defenders. All of this assumes that these ratios are based on skill as opposed to luck or excessively great defenses, which will always play into it as well but the better pitchers should have better ratios.

The RPers are as bad as could be expected at recording defensive outs per run. They only convert 1.7 defensive outs for every baserunner they allow, and are only retiring 4.85 hitters for every runner that crosses the plate. They are, if the data set means anything like what I'd hope that it means, really bad at helping their defense out. They put too many men on base via the free pass and balls in play manage to elude defenders. Not shocking in any way, but it allows us to set the baseline.

Aybar is appreciably better at recording outs in lieu of allowing the batter to reach, with defensive outs at 2.17/baserunner and 6.02/run. Every third batter still results in someone standing on a bag scratching themselves inappropriately, but they score much less frequently than a RP. A full 27% improvement in baserunners, and a 24% improvement in runs allowed per defensive out.

Harrison is actually worse than Aybar at preventing baserunners per defensive out, entirely because of the free passes. It's hard for your defensive to work effectively when they are watching batters stand there with the bat on their shoulder. Harrison generated only 1.83 defensive outs per baserunner, which is still better than the wilder Drexler who could only muster a 1.73 ratio. Harrison is only 8% better than the RP pitchers in this aspect, but is a massive 45% better than the RPs at preventing those runners from scoring, generating 7.07 defensive outs per run. Harrison is almost twice again as effective as Aybar at allowing his defense to get him out of his own jams. He might put more people on base, but when batters do put the ball in play, his stuff is keeping them from driving runners home.

So what does this potentially mean for Atlanta, when we transpose these numbers on to the future Andrade and Mitchell? Andrade is not going to be a bad pitcher by any means. Significantly better than a replacement level pitcher no matter how you look at it, and much more congenial with his defense. However, the same nasty stuff that makes Mitchell so much more effective at two things I didn't loop in, generating strikeouts and preventing homeruns, also will allow him to make life much easier on his defense. In a game of trading outs for runs, Mitchell will have an extra defensive out in hand for every run allowed, or 2/3 a run per 27 outs. If every ball were put into play with a defensive opportunity, Mitchell would be need 15% less offensive support per game, allowing only 3.8 runs per 27 outs to Andrade's 4.49. 10 runs a season in defensive outs alone, down the tubes because they couldn't afford a signing bonus.

Welcome to the Reservation

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 06:33:00 +0000

The Indians trade SP Silas Horak and the rights to their first round draft pick (#8 overall) to the Cincinnati Reds for the rights to the Reds' first round draft pick (#2 overall).

With the second pick in the 2018 amateur draft, the Cleveland Indians select 3B David Betancourt.

2018 Draft: Round One Recap

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 05:39:00 +0000

NOBL Owners Size Up, Select Prospects

With round one complete we can take a look at where some of the top recruits from 2018's highly talented class ended up. Here's a quick glance at the first five players selected.

C Fred Oquendo, San Diego Padres
It surprised many that Oquendo was the first player taken overall. Scouts do not doubt his immense talent, but many looked to hurlers John Brooks and Dizzy Ballester or sluggers David Bettencourt and Howard Wilson to go first. In Oquendo the Padres acquire a rocket arm behind the plate who has the potential to develop into a solid performer at the plate as well.

3B David Bettencourt, Cleveland Indians
The second surprise of the night was not Bettencourt, but who drafted him. The Cincinnati Reds pulled the trigger on a last minute trade that sent the rights to their #2 selection to Cleveland in exchange for the Tribe's #8 spot and minor league pitcher Silas Horner. Cleveland must obviously be happy to land one of the top players in the draft. Bettencourt shows tremendous potential, but at 17 has a lot to prove.

SP Telmo "Dizzy" Ballester, Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays acquire the young phenom from the Venezuelan national team who won the Pan Am games when it was hosted in Los Angeles in 2015. The right hander keeps hitters off-balance with good movement on all four of his pitches. He's probably 2 years away from the majors, but could be part of a devastating 1-2-3 with Earl Husted and David Raby.

CF Alvin Camacho, Houston Colt .45s
Houston decided to go with speed and defense in their first selection of the draft. The switch-hitting Camacho has the tools to develop into a top notch lead off hitter. At only 18 years he possesses a smooth stroke and a veteran hitter's eye, and he is likely to be the first of this year's rookie class to see playing time in the majors. His sprinter's stature (he set the Iowa state record in the 100 meters his senior year) will severely limit his power numbers. The .45's will have to make due with Camacho's speed, stellar defense, and sharp eye at the plate.

C Howard "Terminator" Wilson, Chicago Cubs
Some were surprised Wilson fell to fifth in the draft, but the Cubs were happy to take the power-hitting backstop. With Tony Mazur at the major league level, the Cubs will have the luxury of giving Wilson time to develop his skills in the minors. Once matured, he may become one of the more feared sluggers in the league. He has both home run power and power to the gaps.

So long to Nunez

noreply@blogger.com (ddold) — Thu, 11 Oct 2007 04:31:00 +0000

Strange to have emotion tied into an online league, but I find it satisfying that Oakland was able to take their first championship before we had to put Jackie Nunez out to pasture.

It would be hard to imagine him receiving much notice outside of Oakland, but for the better part of 16 seasons he provided exactly what you want in a middle reliever; he ate innings like a madman (8 seasons of 80+ innings, plus 2 more of 70+), was always available (8 seasons of 78+ games including an NOBL record 103 appearances in 2008, and the career record of 1,048 by a pitcher), and he closed out games whenever it was asked (46/46 SVO in 2016, 50 straight including the end of 2015/beginning of 2017).

Other than the amazing run of saves in 2016, he was never spectacular or dominating, but he finished out his career with a very respectable 1.23 WHIP. He was usually not the designated closer for the A's, even though he was probably the more effective reliever than his long-time teammate, Daniel Kellam. The Athletics often used both of them as setup men, with no designated closer and they would each close out 15-20 games on the year, but on his own Nunez probably would have been good for 300 saves over his career.

His postseason performance in 2016 as the A's ran to with a single game of the championship was remarkable as well, with 7 saves in 9 appearances, allowing 3 walks and 3 hits in 8.2 innings while striking out 8. He also played a crucial role in one of the more bizarre series endings ever, brought in to preserve a tie in the bottom of the 10th with a man on first in game 7. A sacrifice hit, wild pitch and a balk later saw the Dodgers head home with the championship, and ended what looked like Nunez's best shot at a ring.

New Thriller?

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 02:59:00 +0000

CONGRATS OAKLAND!

noreply@blogger.com (NOBL Blogger) — Sun, 07 Oct 2007 04:36:00 +0000

2017 NOBL CHAMPS!

Congrats Dave!